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- Mingdom Capital: June 2024 Update
I’m writing this while on vacation from Mexico so it’s going to be brief. Previous update has more details on the public portfolio since starting it on Feb 1, 2024. Click here to follow the portfolio trades.
Portfolio performance
The Mingdom Capital portfolio beat the SPY again last month, although just slightly.
Top Positions
I’m sharing my top 10 positions in the portfolio for the first time! Not financial advice.
Top Position Changes
Added ~5% weight into Chinese stocks, primarily via BIDU and BABA. Chinese market is still extremely undervalued compared to US despite a slight run up this year.
Bought more CRM after their 20% drop after earnings last week.
Trimmed MELI and NVDA to fund some of the purchases, many more trims in the smaller positions of the portfolio.
Most changes to the portfolio are not in the top 10 and I don’t expect there to be significant changes in the top 10 positions moving forward either.
Market thoughts
In the last update written on 5/5, I wrote:
The big shoe that hasn’t dropped this earnings season is Nvidia, who reports at the end of the month. Until then, my guess is that the market won’t make huge moves and I’m continuing to stay cautious and patient with a sizable cash position.
Well, NVDA beat earnings again and the stock went up even more despite having very high expectations baked in. A wise investor once said to pay no attention to macro predictions, but I still enjoyed reading this post by Jurrien Timmer, who runs global macro at Fidelity. Jurrien believes we are in the 7th inning of a bull-market, which based on the data he presented will peak around 2026.
The last 2 trading days of May was very volatile, but I think the chart below for May 31 is telling:
Daily chart for May 31, each candlestick is 10min
Notice how most the volume is in the last 10min? That’s when the institutional investors trade. And despite the SPY dropping nearly 1% during the day, it ended the day overall up 0.91%. And all of the volume at the EOD is strongly up. So my read on this is that while the retail investors were fearful, institutions (AKA the smart money) are buying into the dip.
Based on the above, my current assumption is that the bull market continues and I should keep buying the dips on high quality companies when they present themselves.
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